Robert Not Bob

That’s the chorus from a cover version of “Year 3000“, a song originally performed by British pop punk band Busted in 2002.  The Jonas Brothers released this cover in 2007 with some slightly cleaned up lyrics more fitting their clean-cut boy band image and their pre-teen fan base.  Fun fact, I have seen the Jonas Brothers in concert 4 times (the joys of fatherhood with daughters) but have never seen the pop punk band Busted.

Back in late 2012 I was asked by CenturyLink to contribute an article for an ebook on predictions for business technology in the year 2020. That was not as far out of the year 3000 but with the pace of technology changes, looking 8 years into the future of tech felt like 1,000 years. I have not been able to track down the ebook, but I did blog about my predictions so there is some records of my prognostication.  Now that we have arrived at the year 2020, I thought it would be interesting to take a look and see how my predictions fared over the past 8+ years.

Prediction #1:  My daughter will be close to wrapping up college and entering the professional workforce.

Well my oldest daughter is close to wrapping up college as she is in the middle of her third year at Ole Miss where she is pursuing a degree in Marketing with minors in Accounting and Management Information Systems.  In addition she has her first internship lined up for Summer 2020.  Feel free to direct message me if you need someone with the combo of educational background and skills in mid-2021.

Verdict:  Spot-on.

Prediction #2:  The cube mazes at many offices would go away because people would not need to be plugged into anything to do their work. Note this was the prediction of my then 13 year old daughter.

While there are still plenty of network cables running through office ceilings and walls, the proliferation of enterprise wireless networks has indeed happened.  There are many days when I am either at my official office or at a client site that I never plug into anything.  My device batteries are long lasting, wireless network access is available and through various screen casting technologies I can throw a presentation up on a monitor without the need for cables.  All of this lessened demand on being constantly plugged in has allowed for more open space offices with alternative lounge-like areas where employees can get things done without being tied to a desk or cube.  There are sadly still offices with the dreaded maze of cubes, but for the most part this has little to do with technology constraints.

Verdict:  Not too bad for a 13 year old kid.

Prediction #3:  There will be a continued growth in data still going strong in 2020, which means a continued demand for more and faster storage, faster network speeds, and larger data circuits.

Demand for data storage worldwide has certainly grown over the past 8 years.  Some estimates I have read show the 2012 demand hovering around 2,000 exabytes and the projected demand in 2020 to be over 30,000 exabytes.  That is crazy growth.  This demand for data and the explosion of cloud based solutions has also caused a major shift in the amount of bandwidth needed in the enterprise.  Gone are the days where you could nail up a couple of T1’s as part of an MPLS network for a small satellite office and call it a day.  Now even small offices have demands for connections with much faster speeds and need to implement things like software defined networks.  The corporate data network today looks much different than it did 8 years ago.

Verdict: Spot-on.

Prediction #4: A continued contraction in the size of corporate data centers and the continued expansion of computing capacity being delivered by third-party service providers.

Amazon Web Services, Microsoft Azure Services, Google Cloud Computing Services, and just about any type of application now available on a “as a service” model have seen significant growth over the past 8 years.  While many companies still have data centers (and I am a true believer in hybrid compute) the need for larger data center footprints generally has decreased due to a combination of more compute and storage squeezed into smaller form factors and the above mentioned explosion of “as a service” technology offerings.  The corporate data center is nowhere near extinct, but I think the growth has certainly stopped.

Verdict:  In the ballpark, but not spot-on.

Prediction #5: The install base of desktops and laptops will be reduced substantially by 2020; Tablets and smartphones will be the standard devices in the workplace, and there will be some not yet thought of device form factor emerging as the hot new thing in 2020.

In 2012 the US market share mix between desktops/laptops versus mobile/tablet devices was somewhere in the 80-20 range, with desktops/laptops dominating that overall market.  Fast forward to 2019 and that mix has changed dramatically with desktops/laptops now accounting for around 40% of the market and mobile/tablets in the lead at around 60%.  However, from my perspective this has not been a shift driven by replacement, rather a shift driven by addition.   The mobile/tablet device has not replaced the traditional desktop/laptop.  Most people I see now use a laptop, a mobile device and in many cases also have a tablet. However for most organizations desktops/laptops still dominate the landscape as the go to workhorse device.

And on the device form factor front, I don’t think things have changed that drastically.  Yes laptops have gotten smaller and more powerful and the smart-phones from Apple and Samsung continue to add more whiz-bang features and advanced cameras, but they are for the most part not that different from what was available in 2012.  (Side note:  in my original predictions I said people would still be lining up for the latest iPhone 13, but actually we are only up 11 – but still lining up virtually.)

Some might say the smart speakers introduced during that 8 year span are a new and hot form factor, but again I see those as more additive devices.  Don’t get me wrong, I love being able to turn on lights, control TV remotes, set thermostats, stream my favorite 80s song or have Jimmy Fallon tell me an awesome dad-joke with a shout of my voice.  However, I have yet to really see those smart speakers adopted in the enterprise space.

Verdict:  Swing and a miss.

Prediction #6: For some businesses, the office as we know it today will cease to exist. The office will truly become wherever the employee happens to be, which will surely drive InfoSec professionals crazy.

While there have been ebbs and flows at major companies around embracing the true remote worker, there has no doubt been a continued move towards work happening outside the traditional office locations.  And this trend has certainly driven and will continue to drive InfoSec professionals crazy.  However, I have not seen any seismic shift in businesses doing completely away with the brick-and-mortar (or steel and glass) offices.

Verdict: Not a complete swing and a miss, more like a foul ball.

Overall Conclusion:  So for not having any mystical powers like the legendary Carnac the Magnificent (for those under the age of 50 go Google it), I felt like I did fairly well looking into the unknown of the future. However, I don’t think I ready to rely on my futuristic visions to support the family.  Fortunately, I think the CEO’s in 2020 realize they still need CIOs.