Archive for January, 2020

Do I Have a Future as a Futurist?

I’ve been to the year 3000
Not much has changed, but they lived underwater
And your great-great-great-granddaughter
Is doing fine
Doing fine

I took a trip to the year 3000
This song had gone multi-platinum
Everybody bought our seventh album
It had outsold Kelly Clarkson

 

That’s the chorus from a cover version of “Year 3000“, a song originally performed by British pop punk band Busted in 2002.  The Jonas Brothers released this cover in 2007 with some slightly cleaned up lyrics more fitting their clean-cut boy band image and their pre-teen fan base.  Fun fact, I have seen the Jonas Brothers in concert 4 times (the joys of fatherhood with daughters) but have never seen the pop punk band Busted.

Back in late 2012 I was asked by CenturyLink to contribute an article for an ebook on predictions for business technology in the year 2020. That was not as far out of the year 3000 but with the pace of technology changes, looking 8 years into the future of tech felt like 1,000 years. I have not been able to track down the ebook, but I did blog about my predictions so there is some records of my prognostication.  Now that we have arrived at the year 2020, I thought it would be interesting to take a look and see how my predictions fared over the past 8+ years.

Prediction #1:  My daughter will be close to wrapping up college and entering the professional workforce.

Well my oldest daughter is close to wrapping up college as she is in the middle of her third year at Ole Miss where she is pursuing a degree in Marketing with minors in Accounting and Management Information Systems.  In addition she has her first internship lined up for Summer 2020.  Feel free to direct message me if you need someone with the combo of educational background and skills in mid-2021.

Verdict:  Spot-on.

Prediction #2:  The cube mazes at many offices would go away because people would not need to be plugged into anything to do their work. Note this was the prediction of my then 13 year old daughter.

While there are still plenty of network cables running through office ceilings and walls, the proliferation of enterprise wireless networks has indeed happened.  There are many days when I am either at my official office or at a client site that I never plug into anything.  My device batteries are long lasting, wireless network access is available and through various screen casting technologies I can throw a presentation up on a monitor without the need for cables.  All of this lessened demand on being constantly plugged in has allowed for more open space offices with alternative lounge-like areas where employees can get things done without being tied to a desk or cube.  There are sadly still offices with the dreaded maze of cubes, but for the most part this has little to do with technology constraints.

Verdict:  Not too bad for a 13 year old kid.

Prediction #3:  There will be a continued growth in data still going strong in 2020, which means a continued demand for more and faster storage, faster network speeds, and larger data circuits.

Demand for data storage worldwide has certainly grown over the past 8 years.  Some estimates I have read show the 2012 demand hovering around 2,000 exabytes and the projected demand in 2020 to be over 30,000 exabytes.  That is crazy growth.  This demand for data and the explosion of cloud based solutions has also caused a major shift in the amount of bandwidth needed in the enterprise.  Gone are the days where you could nail up a couple of T1’s as part of an MPLS network for a small satellite office and call it a day.  Now even small offices have demands for connections with much faster speeds and need to implement things like software defined networks.  The corporate data network today looks much different than it did 8 years ago.

Verdict: Spot-on.

Prediction #4: A continued contraction in the size of corporate data centers and the continued expansion of computing capacity being delivered by third-party service providers.

Amazon Web Services, Microsoft Azure Services, Google Cloud Computing Services, and just about any type of application now available on a “as a service” model have seen significant growth over the past 8 years.  While many companies still have data centers (and I am a true believer in hybrid compute) the need for larger data center footprints generally has decreased due to a combination of more compute and storage squeezed into smaller form factors and the above mentioned explosion of “as a service” technology offerings.  The corporate data center is nowhere near extinct, but I think the growth has certainly stopped.

Verdict:  In the ballpark, but not spot-on.

Prediction #5: The install base of desktops and laptops will be reduced substantially by 2020; Tablets and smartphones will be the standard devices in the workplace, and there will be some not yet thought of device form factor emerging as the hot new thing in 2020.

In 2012 the US market share mix between desktops/laptops versus mobile/tablet devices was somewhere in the 80-20 range, with desktops/laptops dominating that overall market.  Fast forward to 2019 and that mix has changed dramatically with desktops/laptops now accounting for around 40% of the market and mobile/tablets in the lead at around 60%.  However, from my perspective this has not been a shift driven by replacement, rather a shift driven by addition.   The mobile/tablet device has not replaced the traditional desktop/laptop.  Most people I see now use a laptop, a mobile device and in many cases also have a tablet. However for most organizations desktops/laptops still dominate the landscape as the go to workhorse device.

And on the device form factor front, I don’t think things have changed that drastically.  Yes laptops have gotten smaller and more powerful and the smart-phones from Apple and Samsung continue to add more whiz-bang features and advanced cameras, but they are for the most part not that different from what was available in 2012.  (Side note:  in my original predictions I said people would still be lining up for the latest iPhone 13, but actually we are only up 11 – but still lining up virtually.)

Some might say the smart speakers introduced during that 8 year span are a new and hot form factor, but again I see those as more additive devices.  Don’t get me wrong, I love being able to turn on lights, control TV remotes, set thermostats, stream my favorite 80s song or have Jimmy Fallon tell me an awesome dad-joke with a shout of my voice.  However, I have yet to really see those smart speakers adopted in the enterprise space.

Verdict:  Swing and a miss.

Prediction #6: For some businesses, the office as we know it today will cease to exist. The office will truly become wherever the employee happens to be, which will surely drive InfoSec professionals crazy.

While there have been ebbs and flows at major companies around embracing the true remote worker, there has no doubt been a continued move towards work happening outside the traditional office locations.  And this trend has certainly driven and will continue to drive InfoSec professionals crazy.  However, I have not seen any seismic shift in businesses doing completely away with the brick-and-mortar (or steel and glass) offices.

Verdict: Not a complete swing and a miss, more like a foul ball.

Overall Conclusion:  So for not having any mystical powers like the legendary Carnac the Magnificent (for those under the age of 50 go Google it), I felt like I did fairly well looking into the unknown of the future. However, I don’t think I ready to rely on my futuristic visions to support the family.  Fortunately, I think the CEO’s in 2020 realize they still need CIOs.

 

 

The Shadow Knows

“Who knows what evil lurks in the hearts of men?”

“The Shadow knows!”

These are the opening lines to the popular 1930s radio program “The Shadow.” While the Shadow may have known about the lurking evil, many of today’s CIOs are not so fortunate in knowing where IT lurks across their organizations. That’s right, I am talking about the evil called “Shadow IT.”

For those that do not know what is meant by “Shadow IT”, this is basically when employees within an organization are using systems, applications, software, storage solutions or other technology tools without the knowledge of the organizations designated IT department.

As a former CIO who had open, but properly approved and provisioned, access to the company’s financial transaction data and a background in accounting, I know firsthand that Shadow IT is real. I would regularly query the general ledger and accounts payable transactions looking for expenses or assets that looked to be technology related but were not recorded against the expected GL codes of the IT function. I don’t recall a single time I reviewed such data without coming across some kind of technology spend that was happening outside the corporate IT organization and without my prior awareness.

In addition to those financial transaction reviews, I would also found out about Shadow IT items just by listening and observing. When traveling to different locations around the company, I would make a point to decline to sit in a guest office, instead opting to sit out in an available cubicle or open area work space. This would give me a chance to see and hear how employees worked and in some cases see the use of technology-based tools that I knew were not acquired and provisioned through approved channels.

In all the cases of Shadow IT I came across, I don’t recall any instance where someone was trying to maliciously disregard policies or trying to intentionally put the security of the company (and data) at risk. In general, people were just finding ways to get their job done easier and to better serve their customers; and with the proliferation of applications, systems, storage, and platforms being offered as a service the ability to acquire and consume technology outside the purview of the IT function is becoming easier and easier.

So you may be thinking “what’s the big deal about having Shadow IT?” Two words come to mind: money and risks (specifically data security risks.)

Shadow IT can be expensive for an organization – much more expensive than acquiring the technology through formally established IT procurement processes. This increased expense can be in the form of poorly negotiated pricing, inadequate evaluation of alternative solutions and duplication of technology across the organization. In addition, the cost of Shadow IT solutions are often coded into miscellaneous expense categories or are not scrutinized due to the relatively small amount in the context of the non-IT operating budgets. This can result in unmanaged expenses and at time ongoing expenses for technology solutions that are not even actively used.

Shadow IT can also expose an organization to increased risk related to data security. Typically the core processes and controls an IT function have in place are not applied to solutions acquired and managed outside of the IT function. IT functions usually have established processes and procedures to manage access to technology solutions that ensure that new users are given access only to data that is needed to perform job tasks; that access is removed when employees change roles or depart the organization; and that access to systems is reviewed on a regular basis. Systems and applications managed by IT functions usually also have strict password policies that require complex passwords and require regularly changing of passwords. These strict password controls are often lacking or inadequate in Shadow IT environments. In addition, systems and applications managed by IT functions are typically monitored for patches and updates to address security vulnerabilities. The IT function typically also has processes to receive notices from IT solution providers about security incidents and to respond accordingly. These monitoring and response capabilities are typically lacking for technology solutions procured and managed outside of IT functions.

While I could continue on and on about the security risks introduced or amplified by Shadow IT, I think you get the idea. Shadow IT can also create other risks, such as the administrative access to an application walking out the door with a terminated employee (yes, I lived through that one) or having ownership of a company website domain registered under an employee and not the company and not finding out about until the employee has left the company (again, that happened to me.)

So what’s a CIO to do to try and stop or at least curb the evil known as Shadow IT?

  • It almost goes with saying, but have company policies that require IT solutions be acquired and managed through the appropriate IT function.
  • Create processes that make it easy for other function and their employees to request and consume technology that is managed by the IT function. People are normally like water and will follow the path of least resistance. The easier you make it to use the approved IT services, the less likely it is that someone will look for a different path.
  • Listen to the needs of employees and provide technology that makes it easier and more efficient to perform daily tasks. If you are giving employees the tools they need, the need to go find tools outside of the IT function are diminished.
  • Apply the same listening skills to external customers as well. If the IT function does not provide technology that meets the needs of customers, other functions within the organization that interact more closely with customers will find other avenues to meet the needs.
  • When you find Shadow IT, get the management of the technology in alignment with how other technology is managed. Even if the management tasks are not performed directly to IT staff, make sure it follow establish processes and procedures for the management of technology.
  • Do not be the CI-NO! This doesn’t mean you have to say yes to every request, but the answer shouldn’t always be an outright “No”; sometimes it may be providing an alternative that accomplishes the same goal. Shadow IT is typically a sign that the business, and specifically the IT function, is not providing employees with adequate tools to effectively and efficiently carry out their job functions. If IT is providing the business with the technology needed to be successful, other departments and individual employees will not feel a need to go seek out their own technology solutions.

There were times as a CIO that I got pretty worked up about Shadow IT and would start down the war path to go after those that created it. However, calmer heads almost always prevailed and  I tried my best to use every occurrence of it as a learning experience on where there were gaps in the services being provided to the organization. The learnings would then be used to shape and direct future investments in technology and to improve how IT services were delivered to the organization.  While the impacts of Shadow IT can be evil, the intention of those engaged in Shadow IT are usually good.

“Who knows what evil lurks in the shadows of IT? “ If an organization is lucky, the answer is “The CIO knows!”


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